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Methods completely agree on the election outcome


Today, Polly the parrot predicts that Clinton will gain 52.9% of the national two-party vote, compared to 47.1% for Trump. The component methods have all come to the same conclusion. All prediction models expect Clinton to win.

Expert surveys predict a vote share of 52.7% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 55.4% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.

When comparing predictions for previous elections the vote share for the Democrats is quite high with 53.7% in combined polls. Since 1996 they had not gained so many votes at this time during the course of the election. At that time, aggregated polls expected a vote share of 60.5% for Democratic candidate.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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