Today, Polly the parrot predicts that Clinton will gain 52.9% of the national two-party vote, compared to 47.1% for Trump. The component methods have all come to the same conclusion. All prediction models expect Clinton to win.
Expert surveys predict a vote share of 52.7% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 55.4% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.
When comparing predictions for previous elections the vote share for the Democrats is quite high with 53.7% in combined polls. Since 1996 they had not gained so many votes at this time during the course of the election. At that time, aggregated polls expected a vote share of 60.5% for Democratic candidate.