Virginia: Dead heat between Clinton and Trump in latest Rothschild model

The Rothschild model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 49.0% for Clinton and 51.0% for Trump in Virginia.

Historically, Virginia has been a swing state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. This is why predictions here are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they may incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Virginia sees Trump at 53.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.1 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Rothschild model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Rothschild model for Trump are thus 2.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 48.8% in Virginia. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 4.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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