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New DeSart model in Pennsylvania: Trump and Clinton in a tossup

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The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model's forecast is that Clinton will garner 50.3% of the two-party vote share in Pennsylvania, while Trump will end up with 49.7%. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 49.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they often contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Clinton can currently count on 51.9% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Pennsylvania. This value is 1.6 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 3.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.3% in Pennsylvania. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 2.7 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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