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New DeSart model in Nevada: Trump and Clinton in a dead heat


The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to this model, Clinton will receive 51.0% of the two-party vote share in Nevada, while Trump will win 49.0%. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was still predicted to gain 0.0% of the vote.

Historically, Nevada has been a purple state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. This is why predictions here are of particular interest.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be interpreted with caution, because they may incorporate large biases. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, one should look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Nevada econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 51.2%. Relative to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.2 percentage points better.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The results were accurately predicted by the forecast from PollyVote for Nevada. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 2.0 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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