The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 46.8% for Clinton and 53.2% for Trump in Texas. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was predicted to obtain 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models should be regarded with caution, because they may incorporate substantial biases. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Trump can currently count on 57.0% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Texas. In comparison to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 3.8 percentage points better.
The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast
PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 56.2% of the two-party vote in Texas, which is 3.0 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 6.2 percentage points higher.