Jerome model in West Virginia: Trump with comfortable lead

The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model's forecast is that Clinton will garner 46.0% of the two-party vote share in West Virginia, while Trump will end up with 54.0%. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to achieve 54.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in West Virginia sees Trump at 60.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 6.4 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 8.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 62.6% in West Virginia. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 7.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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