The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to this model, Clinton will achieve 43.4% of the two-party vote share in Indiana, whereas Trump will win 56.6%. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to achieve 56.6% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be regarded with caution, as they may incorporate large biases. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Indiana has Trump at 57.3% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.7 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 1.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 55.3% in Indiana. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 9.6 percentage points higher.