The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 52.8% for Clinton and 47.2% for Trump in Washington. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was still predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not focus too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, we recommend to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
Results vs. other econometric models
Clinton currently achieves 54.1% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Washington. This value is 1.3 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 2.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 55.1% in Washington. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 0.2 percentage points lower.