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Jerome model: Trump in Rhode Island trails by a very clear margin


The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 61.7% for Clinton and 38.3% for Trump in Rhode Island. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 38.3% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models often include large errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, we recommend to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Rhode Island sees Clinton at 61.9% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.2 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 1.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 63.0% in Rhode Island. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 8.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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