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Jerome model: Trump trails by a very clear margin


The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model predicts that Clinton will garner 86.4% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 13.6%. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was still predicted to garner 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they often incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Results compared to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 89.2%. This value is 2.8 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 81.7% of the two-party vote, which is 4.7 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 33.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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