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Utah: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead

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The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model predicts that Clinton will garner 35.4% of the two-party vote share in Utah, whereas Trump will win 64.6%. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to collect 64.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't rely too much on the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice is to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Utah sees Trump at 71.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 6.8 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 1.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 63.5% in Utah. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 17.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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