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Jerome model in South Carolina: Trump is in the lead


The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 46.6% for Clinton and 53.4% for Trump in South Carolina. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was predicted to gain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of South Carolina econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 55.7%. This value is 2.3 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Jerome model.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote in South Carolina, which is 0.4 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 6.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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