The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 46.6% for Clinton and 53.4% for Trump in South Carolina. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was predicted to gain 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of South Carolina econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 55.7%. This value is 2.3 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Jerome model.
The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's prediction
PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote in South Carolina, which is 0.4 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 6.4 percentage points higher.