The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to this model, Clinton will garner 43.2% of the two-party vote share in Oklahoma, while Trump will win 56.8%. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was predicted to gain 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models may incorporate large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Oklahoma has Trump at 63.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 6.6 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Jerome model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 5.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 62.5% in Oklahoma. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 9.8 percentage points higher.