Jerome model in North Dakota: Trump with clear lead

The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model forecasts that Clinton will garner 44.3% of the two-party vote share in North Dakota, whereas Trump will end up with 55.7%. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was predicted to collect 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice is to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of North Dakota econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 59.4%. Compared to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 3.7 percentage points better.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 4.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 59.7% in North Dakota. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 8.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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