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Jerome model in North Carolina: Trump with small lead


The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model predicts that Clinton will receive 47.2% of the two-party vote share in North Carolina, whereas Trump will end up with 52.8%. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was predicted to obtain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they can contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, one should use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently achieves 53.2% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in North Carolina. In comparison to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 0.4 percentage points better.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 50.5% of the two-party vote in North Carolina, which is 2.3 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 5.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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