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Jerome model: Trump in New York trails by a clear margin

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The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 58.9% for Clinton and 41.1% for Trump in New York. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to collect only 41.1% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they can contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, you should look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of New York econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 60.7%. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.8 percentage points higher.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 1.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 60.1% in New York. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 5.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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