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Jerome model in New Mexico: Clinton is in the lead

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The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 52.2% for Clinton and 47.8% for Trump in New Mexico. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to collect only 47.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models may contain substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, one should look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results vs. other econometric models

Looking at an average of New Mexico econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 52.6%. In comparison to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.4 percentage points higher.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote in New Mexico, which is 1.7 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 0.8 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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