Jerome model in New Hampshire: Clinton with comfortable lead

The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 54.1% for Clinton and 45.9% for Trump in New Hampshire. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to collect only 45.9% of the vote.

In New Hampshire, the election outcome is usually close. This is the reason why the state is commonly considered a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.

Results vs. other econometric models

If we look at an average of New Hampshire econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 52.3%. This value is 1.8 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 53.6% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire, which is 0.5 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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