The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 45.3% for Clinton and 54.7% for Trump in Montana. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to achieve 54.7% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models can incorporate substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Montana sees Trump at 57.3% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.6 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.
The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 57.1% of the two-party vote in Montana, which is 2.4 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 7.7 percentage points higher.