The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model expects that Clinton will receive 47.4% of the two-party vote share in Missouri, while Trump will win 52.6%. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to collect 52.6% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models often include substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice is to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of Missouri econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 55.0%. This value is 2.4 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 1.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 54.0% in Missouri. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 5.6 percentage points higher.