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Missouri: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead

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The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model expects that Clinton will receive 47.4% of the two-party vote share in Missouri, while Trump will win 52.6%. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to collect 52.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models often include substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice is to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Missouri econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 55.0%. This value is 2.4 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 1.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 54.0% in Missouri. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 5.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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