The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model predicts that Clinton will obtain 58.5% of the two-party vote share in Minnesota, while Trump will end up with 41.5%. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to win only 41.5% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they can contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Minnesota has Clinton at 55.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 3.5 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 55.0% of the two-party vote in Minnesota, which is 3.5 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 5.5 percentage points higher.