Jerome model: Trump in Michigan trails by a moderate margin

The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 55.1% for Clinton and 44.9% for Trump in Michigan. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 44.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models often contain substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Michigan econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.8%. This value is 1.3 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 54.4% of the two-party vote in Michigan, which is 0.7 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 2.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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