The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model expects that Clinton will collect 61.6% of the two-party vote share in Massachusetts, whereas Trump will win 38.4%. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to win only 38.4% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be regarded with caution, because they can incorporate large biases. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Clinton is currently at 62.1% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Massachusetts. In comparison to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.5 percentage points better.
The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 64.4% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts, which is 2.8 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 8.6 percentage points higher.