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Jerome model in Maryland: Clinton with very clear lead

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The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 60.8% for Clinton and 39.2% for Trump in Maryland. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was still predicted to achieve 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Maryland econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 61.1%. In comparison to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.3 percentage points better.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 3.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 64.7% in Maryland. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 7.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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