The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 46.7% for Clinton and 53.3% for Trump in Louisiana. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, as they can include large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Louisiana sees Trump at 57.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 4.2 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.
The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast
PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 57.5% of the two-party vote in Louisiana, which is 4.2 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 6.3 percentage points higher.