Jerome model in Kentucky: Trump with small lead

The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 47.8% for Clinton and 52.2% for Trump in Kentucky. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was predicted to achieve 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, you should look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Kentucky econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 58.4%. Relative to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 6.2 percentage points better.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 59.1% of the two-party vote in Kentucky, which is 6.9 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 5.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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