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Jerome model in Kansas: Trump is in the lead

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The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 43.8% for Clinton and 56.2% for Trump in Kansas. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was predicted to obtain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be regarded with caution, as they may include substantial biases. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Kansas econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 60.1%. Compared to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 3.9 percentage points better.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 1.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.7% in Kansas. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 9.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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