The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 54.3% for Clinton and 45.7% for Trump in Iowa. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to gain only 45.7% of the vote.
Iowa is traditionally a purple state, where the two major political parties have often won similar levels of voter support. Therefore, the election outcome here is viewed as critical in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models can include large biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of Iowa econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.4%. This value is 1.9 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 2.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 51.5% in Iowa. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.3 percentage points higher.