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Idaho: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead


The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model's forecast is that Clinton will receive 32.1% of the two-party vote share in Idaho, whereas Trump will end up with 67.9%. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was predicted to collect 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they may incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Idaho econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 68.8%. This value is 0.9 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 3.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 64.9% in Idaho. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 20.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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