Jerome model: Clinton with clear lead in Hawaii

The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to this model, Clinton will garner 58.1% of the two-party vote share in Hawaii, while Trump will win 41.9%. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was still predicted to achieve 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they often contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.

Results vs. other econometric models

Clinton currently runs at 64.1% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Hawaii. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 6.0 percentage points better.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 67.8% of the two-party vote in Hawaii, which is 9.7 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 5.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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