Jerome model: Trump with small lead in Georgia

The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 47.6% for Clinton and 52.4% for Trump in Georgia. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to win 52.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, don't be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Georgia has Trump at 54.5% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 2.1 percentage points higher.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 0.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 52.5% in Georgia. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 5.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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