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Jerome model in California: Clinton is in the lead

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The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 53.3% for Clinton and 46.7% for Trump in California. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was still predicted to achieve 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models often contain large errors, and should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, you should consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Clinton is currently at 56.6% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in California. This value is 3.3 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 60.0% of the two-party vote in California, which is 6.7 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 0.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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