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Jerome model in Alabama: Trump with comfortable lead


The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 45.6% of the two-party vote share in Alabama, whereas Trump will end up with 54.4%. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was predicted to obtain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be treated with caution, since they may contain substantial biases. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, one should consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump is currently at 59.3% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Alabama. Relative to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 4.9 percentage points better.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 60.2% of the two-party vote in Alabama, which is 5.8 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 7.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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