The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 55.2% for Clinton and 44.8% for Trump in Maine. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was still predicted to gain 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models may include large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to other econometric models
Looking at an average of Maine econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 55.4%. This value is 0.2 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 55.6% in Maine. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 2.2 percentage points higher.