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Illinois: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead

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The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 54.4% for Clinton and 45.6% for Trump in Illinois. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was still predicted to achieve 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be regarded with caution, since they often contain substantial biases. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Clinton is currently at 54.0% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Illinois. This value is 0.4 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 57.6% of the two-party vote in Illinois, which is 3.2 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 1.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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