The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model's forecast is that Clinton will receive 53.5% of the two-party vote share in Connecticut, while Trump will win 46.5%. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to win only 46.5% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models often include substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice is to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
Results compared to other econometric models
Clinton currently runs at 55.1% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Connecticut. Compared to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.6 percentage points better.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 54.5% of the two-party vote in Connecticut, which is 1.0 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 0.5 percentage points higher.