The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 32.3% for Clinton and 67.7% for Trump in Wyoming. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was predicted to collect 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not focus too much on the results of an individual econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Trump currently achieves 71.1% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Wyoming. This value is 3.4 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.
The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 3.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 70.8% in Wyoming. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 20.7 percentage points higher.