The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model expects that Clinton will receive 44.3% of the two-party vote share in Virginia, while Trump will win 55.7%. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to collect 55.7% of the vote.
In Virginia, the popular vote is usually decided by a narrow margin. This is why the state is commonly considered a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models often contain large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to other econometric models
Trump can currently count on 53.1% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Virginia. In comparison to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 2.6 percentage points lower.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 6.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 49.0% in Virginia. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 8.7 percentage points higher.