Jerome model: Trump with small lead in Georgia

The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model predicts that Clinton will receive 47.6% of the two-party vote share in Georgia, while Trump will end up with 52.4%.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be interpreted with caution, because they may contain substantial biases. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump is currently at 54.5% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Georgia. This value is 2.1 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 0.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 52.7% in Georgia. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 5.5 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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