Rothschild model in Indiana: Trump is in the lead

The Rothschild model released an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 1.0% for Clinton and 99.0% for Trump in Indiana. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to end up with 99.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be regarded with caution, because they may include substantial biases. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

Looking at an average of Indiana econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 57.3%. This value is 41.7 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the Rothschild model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Rothschild model for Trump are thus 43.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 55.3% in Indiana. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 52.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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