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DeSart model in West Virginia: Trump is in the lead

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The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 33.2% for Clinton and 66.8% for Trump in West Virginia. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to collect 66.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, you should not put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, we recommend to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Results vs. other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in West Virginia sees Trump at 60.4% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 6.4 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 4.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 62.6% in West Virginia. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 19.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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