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DeSart model: Clinton in North Dakota trails by a very clear margin


The DeSart model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model predicts that Clinton will obtain 37.0% of the two-party vote share in North Dakota, whereas Trump will win 63.1%. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they can incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

Looking at an average of North Dakota econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 59.4%. Relative to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 3.7 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 59.7% of the two-party vote in North Dakota, which is 3.4 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 16.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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