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DeSart model: Clinton in Nebraska trails by a very clear margin

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The DeSart model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 35.9% for Clinton and 64.1% for Trump in Nebraska. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to win 64.1% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they sometimes contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Nebraska econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 61.3%. Relative to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 2.9 percentage points worse.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 3.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 61.1% in Nebraska. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 17.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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