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Louisiana: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead

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The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 38.4% for Clinton and 61.6% for Trump in Louisiana. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to gain 61.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, don't have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Louisiana sees Trump at 57.4% of the two-party vote. Compared to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 4.2 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 57.5% of the two-party vote in Louisiana, which is 4.1 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 14.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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