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DeSart model in Kentucky: Trump is in the lead

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The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 35.5% for Clinton and 64.5% for Trump in Kentucky. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to gain 64.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models often incorporate large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Kentucky econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 58.3%. This value is 6.2 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 5.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 59.1% in Kentucky. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 17.5 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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