DeSart model in Kansas: Trump is in the lead

The DeSart model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model's forecast is that Clinton will collect 36.0% of the two-party vote share in Kansas, while Trump will win 64.0%. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to gain 64.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. As a result, don't focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.

Results vs. other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Kansas has Trump at 60.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 3.9 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 6.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.7% in Kansas. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 17.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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