DeSart model in Missouri: Trump with clear lead

The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model expects that Clinton will garner 42.5% of the two-party vote share in Missouri, whereas Trump will win 57.5%. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was predicted to achieve 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they can contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, one should look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Missouri sees Trump at 55.1% of the two-party vote. Compared to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 2.5 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 3.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 54.0% in Missouri. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 10.5 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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