The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 43.4% for Clinton and 56.6% for Trump in Georgia. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to end up with 56.6% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they may contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, we recommend to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Trump currently runs at 54.5% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Georgia. This value is 2.1 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote in Georgia, which is 4.1 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 9.6 percentage points higher.