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Hawaii: DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead

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The DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to this model, Clinton will collect 70.1% of the two-party vote share in Hawaii, whereas Trump will win 29.9%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, we recommend to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.

Results compared to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Hawaii sees Clinton at 64.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 6.0 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the DeSart model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 2.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 67.8% in Hawaii. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 17.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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