DeSart model: Clinton with comfortable lead in Oregon

The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 54.0% for Clinton and 46.0% for Trump in Oregon. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was still predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, as they can include large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Oregon sees Clinton at 54.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.1 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Oregon, which is 0.2 percentage points above the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 1.0 percentage point higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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